2953-06-18 – Tales from the Service: A Lifeline in the Balance
Obviously, stress on field commanders is a constant problem in wartime, and in no place is it higher than in detached commands far outside easy communication range with their superiors. Battles, campaigns, even the course of the whole war might hinge on the decision of a junior admiral or even a captain on a forward mission, and most of the men and women in these postings know it.
The pressure, I am sorry to say, gets the better of some of them, sometimes. Stress will make lunatics of us all, given enough time.
At first, the ad-hoc council of war went slowly. Admiral Markward instructed one of his aides to lay out a quick summary of the convoy’s situation for the benefit of the hauler skippers and the few others who had been detached when various things had happened, and then the admiral himself laid out his proposed course of action and a few of the advantages and disadvantages as he saw it.
There were few questions; most of the officers present were hesitant to speak up, even when the obvious result of this course – namely, the failure to deliver supplies to Force 73 – was not mentioned among the drawbacks. Markward’s analysis focused on getting his force back to port safely at all costs, just as Captain Conrad Molnar had expected it would.
Commander Weir broke the uneasy silence that fell after Markward was done talking. “Isn’t this course against our orders, sir?” She gestured to the aide controlling the holo-projector, who nodded and called up the orders matrix. “Seventh Fleet told us to make every effort to link up with Bosch.”
“Every effort does not mean suicide, Commander.” Markward emphasized the young officer’s rank to an extreme degree that made the bile rise in Conrad’s throat; only a rear-echelon careerist like the admiral would think a full captain at the helm of a large transport was higher on the Navy pecking order than the more junior skipper of a brand-new fast destroyer. Other than the flag captain and Conrad himself, Dinah Weir was likely the most militarily significant subordinate the admiral had.
“Taking a random-walk until the second rendezvous window is hardly suicidal, Admiral.” Conrad looked up toward the overheads. “Is the asssitant active in this compartment?”
A bright, feminine voice answered instantly. “Absolutely, Captain Molnar. You can call me Orrie.”
Conrad rolled his eyes; he could already tell he disliked Gray Oriolus’s assistant personality configuration. Even the more reserved tone of Bonnie, the assistant on his own Bonaven Kovo, was sometimes too chatty for his tastes. “Can you estimate the odds of an encounter if we random-walk through deep space to the second rendezvous, making only the minimum number of harvesting stops in star systems?”
“Only very loosely, if that’s all right.”
“Take your best shot.” Conrad looked across the table at Admiral Markward. Asking the computer system to do this analysis should have been the job of the admiral and his staff, but if they’d done this, none of the results had been shared in their summary. Markward, for his part, looked unperturbed; perhaps he had done this already as he should have, and the results favored his perspective.
“Based on the Admiral’s current op-for predictive map, the chance of an encounter is thirty-one percent.” Orrie took over the display to show a few charts. “Modeling suggests the most likely encounter profile is a skirmish with forward scouts, followed by a converging attack from multiple enemy squadrons if we can’t lose them.” Now the display became a fast-moving tactical plot, showing three groups of four Incarnation heavy cruisers converging on the huddled symbols representing Convoy 7380. Against that firepower, obviously, an escort force with only a single heavy cruiser and two light cruisers could do nothing.
“So perhaps one chance in three of being found by scouts, one in six of being wiped out.” Conrad nodded. Markward had absolutely done this before, and the system was using some of his parameters, otherwise, the chance of interception couldn’t possibly be scored above five percent. There was, after all, still no conclusive proof the enemy was on the convoy’s tail at all. “That’s better odds than most of our ships would have of coming out of a full-scale battle intact.”
“But this is a supply force, Captain Molnar.” Admiral Markward lowered his voice until it was almost a hiss. “A logistics operation. One in six convoys lost on this route would be unacceptable to the fleet.”
“So would Force 73 being laid up for lack of supplies.” Weir chimed in. “The stores our haulers are carrying won’t do anyone any good back at Sagittarius Gate.”
“The fleet will turn the supplies around and send them back with a proper escort.” Markward shrugged and folded his arms. “The sooner we get back, the sooner that will happen.”
“With all due respect, Admiral...” This was a new voice; Captain Haversham of Gray Oriolus, Markward’s flag captain, had finally chimed in. “We have no hard evidence that this escort force is insufficient. If we could at least sight our pursuers, it would help identify what the next convoy will be up against.”